ADSK

ADSK Earnings Track Record: 100% Beat Rate, but the Drift Is Noisy

Autodesk has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all eight of its last reported quarters, an 8/8 (100%) beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 6.2%. Over the same window, the average 5-day price move in the trading days after earnings has been 6.9% to the upside. That headline combination—a perfect beat rate plus a positive average drift—suggests the stock has historically rewarded earnings exposure. Yet the underlying quarter-by-quarter track record is messier than the averages imply.

The most recent report on 2026-05-28 is the clearest example: Autodesk reported EPS of $2.99 versus the $2.84 estimate, a 5.3% surprise, but the stock fell 4.0% the next session and finished the following five trading days down 3.03%. That contrasts sharply with the prior quarter on 2026-02-26, when a $2.85 print versus $2.65 (7.5% surprise) drove a 5.32% next-day gain and a 13.14% gain over the next five trading days. Earlier quarters show the same split: 2025-08-28 produced a 6.9% surprise, a 9.09% next-day jump, and a 13.13% five-day run, while 2025-11-25 delivered a 6.8% surprise but only a 2.36% next-day move and a 4.35% five-day move. The takeaway is that the 6.9% average post-earnings drift hides wide dispersion, and a beat has not guaranteed either a next-day gap higher or follow-through into the following week.

Options-Flow Context for the August 2026 Report

The next scheduled earnings release is 2026-08-27 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.12. With the stock at $209.75, the 50-day EMA sitting at $214.97, and RSI at 49.9, the setup ahead of the report is technically neutral rather than stretched. That positioning matters for options flow because implied volatility normally expands into the event, and the market's real expectation for a directional move is reflected in the at-the-money straddle premium rather than in the analyst consensus alone.

Using the historical average 5-day post-earnings move of 6.9% as a reference point, the options market will price in a move of roughly that magnitude around the report. Dealers and market makers will be sensitive to gamma positioning, especially if open interest is concentrated near the current $209.75 price. A closer look at skew and net delta positioning can reveal whether participants are positioning for an upside continuation similar to the 2026-02-26 (13.14% five-day) or 2025-08-28 (13.13% five-day) outcomes, or for a reversal similar to the 2026-05-28 (-3.03%) result. The unofficial consensus may differ from the published analyst number, so comparing implied move pricing against the historical 6.2% average surprise gives a more complete picture of what the market is actually pricing.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches Around the Report

Given this specific history, a disciplined trader separates the headline EPS result from the price reaction. The immediate focus should be on management commentary, annual recurring revenue, and billings guidance—metrics that can override a clean EPS beat. The 2026-05-28 quarter showed that even a 5.3% beat can be sold if the forward narrative disappoints, while the 2025-08-28 and 2026-02-26 reports showed that beats with supportive guidance can sustain a multi-day rally.

Technically, watch whether ADSK can reclaim the 50-day EMA at $214.97 heading into the 2026-08-27 report, or whether it remains below that level with RSI near 49.9. Post-earnings, compare the next-day gap against the historical range that spans from the 2026-05-28 -4.0% drop to the 2025-08-28 9.09% surge. Finally, track whether the five-day drift extends or reverses the first-day move; the last four quarters produced both continuation (2026-02-26, 2025-08-28) and failure-to-follow-through (2026-05-28) patterns. For a deeper dive into how institutional desks are positioned before the 2026-08-27 report, read the full institutional verdict.